Prediction Market Movers

Prediction Market Movers welcomes John Phillips, co-founder and CEO of PredictIt, for a deep discussion on the evolution of prediction markets, CFTC regulation, and the future of the industry.
Chris Gerlacher and John Phillips break down PredictIt’s legal battles with the CFTC, the DCM/DCO licensing process, and how political forecasting markets differ from traditional polling and sports betting platforms.
The episode also highlights why politics has become one of the strongest use cases for prediction markets and why prediction market odds may provide valuable forecasting insights beyond polling data.
Phillips also discusses PredictIt’s history operating under a no-action letter, the company’s courtroom victory against the CFTC, the risks of overregulation, and why he believes prediction markets will continue expanding across politics, economics, weather, entertainment, and news media.
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.predictionnews.com
00:00 - Intro 3:00 - Utilizing Prediction Markets
4:30 - PredicitIt getting involved in sports
6:30 - “There will be a thousand prediction markets.”
9:15 - Is there a Prediction Market bubble?
11:00 - CFTC value
14:00 - How PMs handle emotionally charged events
17:00 - PredictIt during the pandemic
19:00 - DCM application and path
22:30 - CFTC post-Trump administration
24:40 - “Some regulation is valuable”
26:00 - What needs to adjusted on the industry side
29:30 - Using PM data in the future
 
#PredictionMarkets #PredictIt #CFTC #Kalshi #Polymarket #ElectionForecasting #PredictionMarketMovers #Politics #Forecasting #ElectionOdds #Trading #Crypto #SportsBetting #PredictionNews #PoliticalForecasting

Prediction Market Movers welcomes the Co-founder and CEO of American Civics Exchange Flip Pidot for a deep dive into prediction market efficiency, emotional trading, political forecasting, and the future of derivatives built on top of prediction markets.
Chris Gerlacher and Flip discuss how markets process information, why emotional bias creates persistent mispricing, and what separates accurate forecasting from simple market calibration.
Chris and Flip break down insider trading concerns in prediction markets, institutional adoption, settlement controversies, and how regulators may approach the rapidly growing prediction market industry over the next several years. The conversation also covers how smart traders identify irrational pricing in highly emotional political markets.
The interview finishes with Flip discussing American Civics Exchange, the first US-based commercial market for political futures.
 
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com
00:00 - Intro
1:30 - What makes a market efficient
4:30 - Eliminating friction in the market 7:30 - Emotional bias in the market
12:50 - PredictIt in 2025
17:25 - Duplicate markets and trader limits
20:50 - No action relief/insider trading
34:00 - timeline of investigating insider trading
42:55 - Derivatives layers on prediction markets
53:00 - Market resolution process
59:00 What is American Civics Exchange?

Prediction Market Movers is back with Dan Schwarz, CEO and co-founder of FutureSearch, to break down the future of AI forecasting, prediction markets, and the science behind writing high-quality prediction market questions.
Chris Gerlacher and Dan Schwarz discuss how platforms like PolyMarket and Kalshi handle market resolution, why poorly written prediction market questions create controversy, and how traders, policymakers, and institutions all use prediction markets differently. They also explore geopolitical forecasting, AI prediction systems, market liquidity, forecasting probabilities, and the role of prediction markets in understanding events like Iran, Venezuela, Taiwan, pandemics, and AI development.
Dan explains how FutureSearch uses AI agents to research forecasting questions, compare probabilities against prediction market odds, and identify potential pricing inefficiencies across markets. The conversation also covers AGI forecasting, forecasting accuracy, and how AI forecasting tools could rival human prediction markets.
00:00 - Intro
1:30 - Curating Prediction Market questions
5:00 - Who to trust with the questions
6:15 - Making a market
8:00 - Specificity of prediction markets and AI
9:30 - What makes an interesting question?
11:00 - Prediction Markets falling short
12:00 - Circulating new questions
14:15 - The importance of market resolving
19:00 - Percentages in markets are dependent on the audience
21:20 - What is Future Search?
23:50 - Future Search features
26:00 - How would a sports bettor look at Future Search?
28:15 - What does a mature PM industry look like in the future?
34:00 - Goodbye
#PredictionMarkets #PolyMarket #Kalshi #AI #Forecasting #FutureSearch #ArtificialIntelligence #Crypto #PredictionNews #AGI #Metaculous #ElectionForecasting #Geopolitics #MachineLearning #Trading
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

Welcome back to Prediction Market Movers. Chris Gerlacher sits down with Skywalk Founder Henry Lau to break down the current state of crypto prediction markets, including what’s changed over the past six months, what’s working, and what hasn’t materialized.
This episode dives into the rapid growth and saturation of the prediction market space, where over 150 platforms exist but only a fraction generate meaningful volume. Henry explains why distribution, liquidity, and go-to-market strategy are critical for survival in an increasingly competitive landscape.
They also explore the role of KYC requirements in crypto, how friction impacts user onboarding, and the divide between institutional adoption and crypto-native users. The conversation covers how prediction markets are evolving beyond their original vision, including the shift toward sports trading and emerging use cases like MetaDAO and futarchy-driven decision-making.
#PredictionMarkets #Crypto #Web3 #PolyMarket #Calshi #Blockchain #DeFi #CryptoTrading #Finance #MarketAnalysis #Investing #Trading #Web3News #CryptoNews #PredictionMarketMovers
00:00 - Intro
1:00 - Saturation in prediction markets?
3:00 - KYC requirements
8:30 - Polymarket token launch
11:15 - On chain liquidity
15:00 - User generated markets
19:45 - Newcomers in the crypto sectors
27:50 - Building avoiding traps
31:45 - Skywalk update
35:45 - Final thoughts
 
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Isaac Rose-Berman of the American Institute for Boys and Men to break down the real-world impact of sports betting and prediction markets.
From beating sportsbooks to market making on exchanges like Kalshi, Isaac shares what actually separates profitable bettors from the rest—and why prediction markets are a completely different game.
The conversation dives deep into:
The transition from sports betting to market making How prediction market structure impacts profitability
The rise of gambling among younger audiences Policy concerns around advertising, iGaming, and regulation
The blurred line between investing and gambling
Why most traders lose—and what people misunderstand about the industry
 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com
 
00:00 - Intro
1:00 - Pivoting from sports betting to market making
4:20 - Moving into policy
5:50 - What was missing in sports?
7:15 - Why AIBM?
8:35 - Misconceptions of AIBM
9:35 - Policy priorities at AIBM
11:35 - Confronting Kalshi ads
13:30 - Educating the youth on Prediction Markets
16:30 - The impact of Kalshi losing sports contracts
19:45 - Reception from the youth on PMs and market making
25:00 - What is Finance Land missing?
30:20 - Navigating cannibalism rates
32:00 - Difference in customer base with PMs
34:00 - The importance of keeping sports
#PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #Kalshi #GamblingPolicy #TradingStrategy #Fintech #BettingTips #MarketMaking #PredictionMarketMovers

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Shay Patel to break down how Delphi Markets is building the data infrastructure layer for prediction markets.
While most of the industry focuses on exchanges, this conversation dives into what happens behind the scenes — how fragmented APIs, messy data, and cross-exchange inefficiencies are creating opportunities for traders, funds, and institutions.
Shay explains how Delphi Markets aggregates and standardizes data across multiple platforms, enabling smarter trading, better forecasting, and entirely new use cases for prediction market data.
What You’ll Learn:
• How Delphi Markets built a unified API across multiple exchanges
• Cross-exchange market matching and resolution risk
• Smart order routing to get the best price across platforms
• Wallet analytics and detecting suspicious/insider activity
• The role of RFQ data and parlay pricing insights
• Why AI trading bots are overhyped in prediction markets
• The long-term outlook for prediction markets heading into 2028
00:00 - Intro
1:00 - How Shay got involved in Delphi Markets
2:50 - Picking prediction markets
4:15 - On the lack of infrastructure
5:25 - What is Delphi Markets?
6:30- Creating a unified API
7:30 - Resolution risks
8:00 - Explaining market matching and RFQ systems
9:20 - The impact of wallet analytics
10:30 - Detecting suspicious trades
13:30 - Smart order routing
17:00 - Is AI trading good?
18:15 - Prediction Markets depend on 2028 election
#PredictionMarkets #DelphiMarkets #DataInfrastructure #EventContracts #PredictionMarketMovers #Polymarket #Kalshi #QuantTrading #MarketData #SportsTrading #AITrading #forecasting
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher speaks with Stephen Grugett, founder of MNX and co-founder of Manifold Markets, about the evolution from play-money forecasting platforms to real-money AI-focused derivatives markets.
MNX is building infrastructure for trading AI-native markets — including company valuation contracts, benchmark performance markets, and perpetual futures tied to the artificial intelligence economy.
In this conversation, Stephen Grugett explains:
• Why Manifold originally chose play-money markets over crypto
• The limitations of traditional yes/no prediction markets
• How AI company valuation markets could function
• What perpetual futures (“perps”) are and why they matter
• The mechanics behind synthetic derivatives and open interest
• Infrastructure decisions, including Ethereum Layer 2 deployment
• Regulatory considerations for offshore vs U.S. launch
• How MNX differs from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket
 
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com
#PredictionMarkets #AI #Crypto #MNX #Manifold #PerpetualFutures #OpenAI #Anthropic #Fintech #Web3 #Derivatives #ArtificialIntelligence #MarketInnovation

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with full-time mention market trader Tyrael, who has found much success in mention market trading — including a very profitable night during the State of the Union address.
Tyrael breaks down exactly how he approaches volatile mention markets tied to figures like Donald Trump, JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Zohran Mamdani — and why speech-based contracts can be some of the most mispriced markets in the prediction space.
Tyrael explains how he combines historical transcript frequency data with real-time geopolitical developments to price words before they’re spoken. He walks through the difference between scripted language and “weave” improvisation, how that affects probabilities, and why certain words like “Sleepy Joe” were clear fades during a formal address.
The conversation also dives into:
• How he handicaps State of the Union mention markets
• The ethics of insider trading in prediction markets • Pre-recorded interview leak risk and adverse selection
• “Rule cucks” and controversial resolutions on Kalshi and Polymarket
• Why some mention markets (late night shows, TV tapings) may not belong on exchanges at all
 
Tyrael also shares how he transitioned into trading full-time, lessons from early losses (including a conviction bet on Josh Shapiro as VP), and how he balances high-intensity live event trading with family life.
00:00 - Intro
1:00 - Winning big during the State of the Union
3:00 - Trading on politics
4:30- On mentions markets
7:00 - Why mention markets?
9:30 - How long did it take to become a job?
12:00 - Balancing being a dad and a trader
14:50 - Managing information leaks
17:00 - Insider trading vs. sharp trading
19:50 - Navigating “pump schemes”
24:00 - improvements in market resolutions
27:00 - Which mention markets have value?
For more for info on Tyrael, check him out on X - @ØxTyrael
#PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #PoliticalTrading #EventContracts #ElectionMarkets #StateOfTheUnion #DonaldTrump #Midterms #CFTC #CryptoPredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers
 
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Sporttrade CEO Alex Kane explains why the company has officially applied for federal approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to become both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO).
Instead of operating under 38 different state sports betting laws, Sporttrade wants to move to a single federal framework. Alex explains why the exchange model struggles under state tax structures, and why federal regulation may allow more innovation, better pricing, and stronger liquidity.
We also discuss:
• The difference between sportsbooks and exchanges
• Why algorithmic and corporate trading are restricted in many states
• How broker partnerships could expand access
• What “high-quality liquidity” really means
• How Sporttrade plans to compete with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket
#PredictionMarkets #Sporttrade #CFTC #Kalshi #Polymarket #SportsBetting #DCM #DCO
00:00 - Intro
1:00 - Challenges with regulators
7:00 - On handle taxes
12:00 - What makes Sporttrade different?
15:00 - CFTC and DCM applications vs State license
25:45 - Potential new customers if granted DMC license
28:40 - How are you improving the status quo?
32:00 - Quality of liquidity
37:40 - Benefits of broker partnerships
40:45 - Market needs for traders in the PM industry

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlach is joined by Gaeten Dugas, a top-100 Kalshi trader, for a deep dive into how experienced traders approach culture markets, political prediction markets, and insider trading risk.
Gaeten explains why his trading starts with genuine interest, from politics and government shutdowns to music, movies, and pop culture markets like Spotify charts, Rotten Tomatoes, Taylor Swift, and Super Bowl halftime props.
He breaks down how prediction markets help remove emotion from political analysis and why “skin in the game” produces better forecasts than traditional punditry.
The conversation also tackles one of the biggest issues facing prediction markets today: insider trading and data leaks. Gaeten shares firsthand experiences with suspicious Spotify market movements, explains how traders protect themselves from leaked data, and reacts to Kalshi’s newly announced insider trading safeguards and integrity tools.
00:00 - Intro
1:00 - Getting into culture markets
3:00- Approach to trading
4:00 - Will PM traders get mainstream coverage
6:20 - What markets he is monitoring
9:40 - Requesting markets
10:30 Guarding insider trading
12:40 - Deciphering insider trading
14:00 - Markets he avoids
15:30 - When the price is right
17:00 Feeling secure with markets
20:30 How should Kalshi handle insider trading
21:20 - Using polymarket
22:10 - on Crypto
23:15 - Balancing the markets
 
#PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #InsiderTrading #CultureMarkets #PoliticalPrediction #ElectionMarkets #PredictionNews #EventContracts #MarketIntegrity #SpotifyCharts #TaylorSwiftMarkets #CFTC #TradingPsychology