Prediction Market Movers

How do professional prediction market traders move millions of dollars between exchanges, and why are traditional banks often unwilling to support them? In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Seni Thomas, founder of Edge Markets, to discuss the hidden infrastructure powering prediction markets.
From banking challenges and real-time payments to capital efficiency and liquidity management, Seni explains why payment rails may be one of the biggest growth opportunities in the industry.
Seni shares how Edge Markets is approaching real-time payments, capital constraints, fragmented liquidity, OTC block trading, and enterprise banking for trading firms. The conversation also explores the role of RTP and FedNow, the importance of market-making infrastructure, and how future NFA and FCM-related capabilities could affect the broader prediction market ecosystem.
Chris and Seni also discuss the long-term outlook for the industry, including competition between exchanges, sportsbook operators entering the space, responsible gaming tools, and why Edge Markets believes prediction markets could become a multi-trillion-dollar industry.
 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets.
Learn More:
Prediction News
https://predictionnews.com
Prediction Edge
https://predictionedge.com
Edge Markets
https://edgemarkets.io
00:00 - Intro
1:30 - Problems that trading accounts have with traditional banks
6:15 - How has trading changed since arbitrage?
8:20 Solving combo pricing
12:30 - On large trades
13:55 - Why don’t traditional banks like trading?
17:50 - Qualifications for EDGE Markets
19:35 - Timeline on NFA membership
21:35 - EDGE Markets margins
22:35 - Early gaming features
 27:00 - Traction with prediction markets
29:40 - Fragmentation in the markets
31:20- What anew exchange brings?
 
#PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionNews #EdgeMarkets #SeniThomas #Kalshi #Polymarket #Fintech #Banking #Payments #TradingInfrastructure

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Oscar Levy, founder of River Markets, to discuss how his company is building prime brokerage infrastructure for prediction markets.
Oscar explains why liquidity is fragmented across exchanges, how River Markets uses smart order routing to help traders find the best available prices, and why execution quality becomes increasingly important for professional and institutional traders.
The conversation dives into multi-venue execution, machine learning for market mapping, slippage reduction, portfolio and risk management, and how River Markets approaches trading across major prediction market platforms.
Oscar also explains how professional traders differ from recreational traders, why prediction market contracts require sophisticated execution tools, and how River Markets is designed to optimize trading across multiple exchanges.
Chris and Oscar also discuss the future of prediction market infrastructure, the expanding landscape of CFTC-regulated exchanges, Y Combinator, and River Markets' roadmap for supporting additional trading venues and financial products.
 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets.
Learn More:
Prediction News
https://predictionnews.com
Prediction Edge
https://predictionedge.com
River Market
https://www.rivermarkets.com/
0:00 - Intro
1:15 - Why fragmented exchanges and River Market?
3:30 - On River Market’s algorithm
4:30 - Protecting customers and resolutions
6:15 - Splitting prices and navigating volatility
8:45 - What strategies are used?
9:45 - Every trader has a process
10:30 - Underrated features of River Market
12:00 - On River Market's forecast models and patterns
14:45 - How safe is River market from disruptions?
15:45 - Risk management products
17:05 - Y-combinator experience
20:00 - Future plans for River Market
#PredictionMarkets #RiverMarkets #OscarLevy #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #Trading #Finance #AlgorithmicTrading #MachineLearning #Fintech #CFTC #MarketStructure #Liquidity #PredictionNews

Chris Gerlacher welcomes Hunter Guo, founder of Verdict HQ, on Prediction Market Movers to discuss Polymarket resolution risk and how a controversial MicroStrategy Bitcoin market led Hunter to build an independent watchdog for prediction market contracts.
Hunter explains how Verdict HQ scores markets using six factors: time clarity, resolution source, outcome definitions, edge cases, and post-trade risk. The goal is to help traders identify contracts that may be difficult to resolve cleanly before they place a trade.
The conversation covers ambiguous market wording, UMA voting, and examples from crypto, geopolitics, sports, and breaking news. Chris and Hunter also discuss which types of markets tend to be safer or riskier.
They close by talking about the future of prediction markets, including AI-assisted analysis, community reputation features, and why clearer standards and independent oversight matter as the industry grows.
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com
00:00 - Intro
1:30 - Crypto trading to prediction Markets
3:10 - Getting involved with trading on Polymarket
5:20 - Market resolution incident
11:05 - Launching Verdict
13:30 - Detecting market clarity
17:35 - Which markets are high risk?
20:35 - Upcoming features on Verdict
#PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #HunterGuo #PredictionMarketMovers #Crypto #Bitcoin #Blockchain #Kalshi #DeFi #UMA #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #PredictionNews #Trading #CryptoTrading

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with top 100 Kalshi trader Gaeten Dugas to break down how suspicious Spotify streaming activity allegedly manipulated prediction markets, and what the data reveals about coordinated botting campaigns.
The conversation explores how fraudulent Spotify streams affected Kalshi Culture Markets, why Ella Langley appeared destined to win before unexpected market shifts, and how traders identified unusual U.S.-only streaming spikes tied to specific artists.
They also discuss the broader implications for prediction markets, market integrity, regulation, and the CFTC, including the growing challenge of third-party manipulation, flawed resolution sources, and what exchanges like Kalshi may need to change moving forward.
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com
0:00 - Intro
1:30 - Spotify stream market
3:15 - Timeline of issues
24:00 - Kalshi’s resolution
28:05 - Kalshi’s response
30:00 - Spotify’s updated figures
33:30 - How should Kalshi adjust?
36:30 - Cleaning up market resolution
38:45 - 3rd party manipulation
#PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Spotify #SpotifyStreams #MarketManipulation #Polymarket #Crypto #StreamingFraud #PredictionNews #Trading #CFTC #MarketIntegrity #MusicIndustry #ElectionMarkets

Welcome back to Prediction Market Movers! In this episode, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Gina Antoniello of SafeBets to discuss a new approach to prediction markets that rewards users for accurate forecasting without requiring them to risk their own money.
Gina explains how SafeBets uses Unicoin, an "accuracy economy," and institutional market intelligence to create a different model from traditional sports betting and prediction platforms.
The conversation explores how SafeBets identifies top forecasters, monetizes aggregated prediction data instead of user losses, and approaches consumer protection through product design. Chris and Gina also discuss the role of crypto, regulatory challenges, prediction market innovation, sports betting psychology, academic research at NYU, and the future expansion of prediction markets into politics and other categories.
Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com
00:00 - Intro
1:15 - How does SafeBets work?
6:30 - Company growth tied to a coin
8:00 - Operating without much regulation
11:00 - Markets insiders and available markets
13:10 - Navigating through an unknown crypto space
19:30 - SafeBets research strategy
22:00 - Utilizing user psychology
24:20 - Response after launching SafeBets
27:45 - Bets outside of sports
30:20 - Are political bets in the future?
31:30 - Sports and politics intersecting
 
#PredictionMarkets #SafeBets #Crypto #SportsBetting #Web3 #Forecasting #PredictionNews #PredictionMarketMovers #SportsPrediction #Blockchain #CryptoNews #BehavioralEconomics #Unicoin #SportsAnalytics #Fintech

Prediction market trader Domer joins host Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers for an in-depth discussion about the evolution of prediction markets, professional trading strategies, political forecasting, and the future of market resolution.
Domer shares his experience trading across hundreds of prediction markets, explains how his approach has evolved since the early PredictIt days, and discusses finding an edge as prediction markets become increasingly efficient.
The conversation explores political forecasting, reacting to breaking news, information asymmetry, insider activity, and why understanding market rules is just as important as understanding the underlying event.
The episode also takes a deep dive into one of the industry's most debated topics: market resolution. Chris and Domer discuss Polymarket's UMA resolution controversies, Kalshi's centralized resolution process, contract interpretation, prediction market governance, and what improvements could help prediction markets continue to mature.
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets.
For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com
00:00 - Intro
1:30 - When the bets get bigger
2:15 - Which markets are for Domer 
3:45 - PredictIts model
4:50 - Political trading changes
6:30 Finding an edge
7:30 - Dabbling with new topics and markets
10:00 - Details of a market
11:45 - hasn’t improved
14:00 - Adjusting to the political environment
15:40 - Reading into political movements
20:00 - Signs you’re trading against a pro
22:00 - Pulling back from a market
26:00 - History in unique markets
29:30 - Market resolution
38:00 - non-binary payouts
40:20 - Improving market resolution
43:45 - On Conspectus
47:15 - Future investments
#PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionNews #Kalshi #Polymarket #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #PoliticalForecasting #Trading #SportsPrediction #Crypto #AI #Investing #MarketAnalysis #EventContracts

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Christian Williams of Metaculus to discuss AI forecasting, labor automation, and the future of work.
Christian explains how Metaculus differs from traditional prediction market platforms, why reputation-based forecasting can produce valuable insights, and how forecasters approach complex questions involving AI, geopolitics, biosecurity, technological change, and long-term societal trends.
The conversation also explores what separates top forecasters from the crowd and how forecasting competitions identify forecasting talent. Chris and Christian take a deep dive into Metaculus' Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, discussing projections for job growth and decline, AI’s impact on occupations, workforce development, unemployment trends, and how policymakers and state governments are beginning to use forecasting tools to prepare for AI-driven economic shifts.
The episode also covers AI forecasting competitions, forecasting bots, state-level AI planning, long-term forecasting, and the growing role forecasting platforms may play in helping society navigate the next decade of technological change.
🔔 Subscribe to Prediction News for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com
👍 Like this video and leave a comment: Which profession do you think will be most impacted by AI over the next 10 years?Metaculus features and research: https://www.metaculus.com/midterms-2026/ — live midterms tracker https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/midterms-2026/ — $10k prize pool https://www.metaculus.com/labor-hub/ — AI-and-jobs dashboard https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/labor-hub/ — $35k prize pool https://www.metaculus.com/futureeval/ — AI forecasting benchmark https://www.metaculus.com/futureeval/participate/ — Participate — build-a-bot resources + explainer video: $175k prize pool / yr https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/43357/bot-advice-fall-2025/ (Fall 2025) — what winners did https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-summer-2026/ — generalist forecasting, short turnaround, pegged to the news $5k -- Dylan Matthews as current challenger https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/33016/ — $3k+ Save Our Bacon Act and more on animal welfare https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/ — (yearly, now closed) $30k prize pool + recruiting Metaculus Pro Forecasters - https://www.metaculus.com/services/pro-forecasters/ https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/epoch-ai-robotics/ — robotics timelines https://www.metaculus.com/news/ — latest updates https://x.com/metaculus — launches and announcements
00:00 - Intro
1:40 - Why Metaculus?
4:30 - Forecast slider accuracy
6:45 - AI additions
8:40 - AI’s relationship with the next generation
20:45 - What’s next for Metaculus?
24:45 - Lawmakers implementation
25:40 - The future of Robotics and AI
27:00 - Most important questions for Metaculus
30:00 - Credibility of forecasting
31:15 - Limits on AI bots
37:00 - What is scaffolding?
#PredictionMarketMovers #ChristianWilliams #Metaculous #AIForecasting #ArtificialIntelligence #FutureOfWork #PredictionMarkets #Forecasting #AIJobs #Automation #Superforecasters #PredictionNews #LaborAutomation #MachineLearning #Economy

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Jan Czarnocki of Elastics AI to explore how artificial intelligence could reshape the future of prediction market trading. Jan explains how Elastics AI is building tools that allow traders to turn market convictions into automated strategies.
The conversation dives into the growing intersection of AI, forecasting, and financial markets. Jan discusses the challenges of using large language models in prediction markets, the importance of deterministic execution, and how AI agents can help traders process information, manage positions, and identify opportunities more efficiently.
They also discuss prediction market infrastructure, market resolution systems, and the evolving role of automation in trading. Chris and Jan examine where the industry is headed as prediction markets continue to mature. They discuss institutional adoption, the growing demand for market intelligence tools, the role of data in forecasting, and how AI-powered systems may become an essential layer of the prediction market ecosystem.
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.predictionnews.com
00:00 - Intro edit read
1:30 - Quants at Goldman Sachs
3:30 - How did this become Elastics Ai
4:45 - Inside Elastics Ai
8:20 - Ai bots hallucinating
12:00 - Why hasn’t Ai caught up to it’s maximum possibility
14:00 - On more specialty markets
16:00 - LLMs becoming the next stage of UI
19:00 - Hardcoding LLMs
20:45 - How will markets evolve?
25:00 - Market Resolution evolution
29:30 - Next steps for Elastic Ai
#PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #AIAgents #Kalshi #Polymarket #ElasticsAI #Forecasting #QuantTrading #ArtificialIntelligence #Fintech #PredictionNews

Ed Silva joins Prediction Market Movers to discuss his decade at DraftKings, the evolution of sports betting, and how those lessons apply to the rapidly growing prediction market industry.
Ed explains the similarities and differences between sports bettors and political traders, liquidity challenges, and why prediction markets still feel like an early-stage industry.
The conversation explores prediction market data, election forecasting, user behavior, prediction market infrastructure, and how traders can identify signal in increasingly complex markets. Ed also discusses the challenges of building data products for politics compared to sports, where decades of data already exist.
Chris Gerlacher and Ed Silva also break down the future of Prediction Edge, how polling, fundraising, endorsements, and prediction market odds can be combined into actionable insights, and why data-driven election analysis could become one of the most important use cases for prediction markets ahead of the 2026 midterms and beyond.
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets.
For more information on the Prediction Edge visit www.predictionedge.com
00:00 - Intro
1:30 - Time at DraftKings
2:30 - Being on the founder side
3:30 - Going sports to politics
5:30 - Difference between sports and political trading
7:00 - Square trading in politics
10:50 - Price sensitive sports betters
12:30 - Response to Kalish’s tweets
16:45 - How has data been underutilized in the PM industry?
19:00 - What’s missing in prediction markets?
20:30 - Prediction Edge
22:30 - Features on Prediction Edge
25:50 - Screening out bad data
 
#PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #DraftKings #ElectionForecasting #PoliticalBetting #PredictionEdge #SportsBetting #Trading

On this edition of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Avi Arora, co-founder of Oddpool, to discuss how institutional traders are approaching prediction markets and what infrastructure is still missing for large-scale adoption.
The conversation covers Kalshi, Polymarket, historical tick-level data, market-making, liquidity, institutional flow, prediction market analytics, and how Oddpool is building data tools for traders and hedge funds.
Avi explains how he became interested in prediction markets through mention markets, statistical trading strategies, low-latency broadcast signals, and speech-to-text analysis. The episode also dives into how prediction market data can be used for backtesting, quantitative trading, AI forecasting models, and market pricing across platforms.
The discussion also explores Y Combinator, startup founder dynamics, fundraising, prediction market regulation, and how companies like Kalshi helped push the industry forward.
Avi shares insights into building Oddpool, collecting normalized market data across venues, and why the prediction market data layer could become one of the most valuable segments of the industry over the next several years.
👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com
00:00 - Intro
1:30 - His start in Prediction Markets
5:15 - Starting Oddpool
6:15 - What is missing in prediction markets?
9:15 - Which contracts should be targeted?
11:20 - Getting into Y Combinator and founder dynamics
14:20 - The benefit of Y Combinator
16:30 - On industry interruptions
20:30 - What does a mature industry look like?
22:30 - Hedging on political events
24:00 - Under appreciated data in prediction markets
27:20 - Next steps for Oddpool
#PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #Oddpool #PredictionMarketMovers #QuantTrading #AI #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #Trading #YCombinator #Finance #InstitutionalTrading #MacroTrading #PredictionNews